Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Somerset have won the last three meetings against Northamptonshire. In the most recent clash, Somerset chased down the target with 30 balls remaining to win by 7 wickets. The defining feature was how comfortably Somerset controlled the chase, finishing with seven wickets in hand. The broader pattern is one-way: Northamptonshire are 0-3 in the last three head-to-heads.

SOSomerset 165/3

NONorthamptonshire 162/8

2026-07-10 · SOM won by 7 wickets (with 30 balls remaining)

NONorthamptonshire 118/10

SOSomerset 223/4

2026-07-05 · SOM won by 105 runs

NONorthamptonshire 198/5

SOSomerset 215/3

2024-09-05 · SOM won by 17 runs

Northamptonshire

Northamptonshire are 10W-3L with a +0.666 net run rate. Their last three games have swung from a 5-wicket defeat to a response win where they chased with 14 balls remaining, showing they can reset quickly after a loss.

NONorthamptonshire 153/2

GLGloucestershire 152/10

2026-07-15 · NOR won by 8 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

NONorthamptonshire 153/10

WAWarwickshire 154/5

2026-07-12 · WAR won by 5 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

NONorthamptonshire 162/8

SOSomerset 165/3

2026-07-10 · SOM won by 7 wickets (with 30 balls remaining)

Somerset

Somerset are 8W-5L with a +0.404 net run rate. They arrive on a three-match winning run, capped by a 2-wicket win with 1 ball remaining, alongside a 78-run win that shows they can win both tight and one-sided games.

SOSomerset 165/8

YOYorkshire 161/9

2026-07-15 · SOM won by 2 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

SOSomerset 194/7

WOWorcestershire 116/10

2026-07-12 · SOM won by 78 runs

SOSomerset 165/3

NONorthamptonshire 162/8

2026-07-10 · SOM won by 7 wickets (with 30 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Prediction

Models are split: the ML leans Northamptonshire at 51%, but the other models favour Somerset, with the model average at Somerset 59%. Bookmakers side with Somerset, pricing SOM at 58% (1.65) vs NOR at 42% (2.20). Key stats narrowly favour Somerset 4-3, driven by their perfect last-three form and a 3-0 edge in recent head-to-heads. Northamptonshire’s counterweight is the stronger net run rate, but they need to flip the recent matchup trend.

Willey snaps the chase shut

David Willey turned a drifting defence into a firm grip, breaking Somerset’s momentum just as the chase threatened to run away. Somerset were ahead early and had a platform, but Northamptonshire kept taking wickets at the right moments and closed out a 17-run win, despite being bowled out for 143 with four balls left.

Middle-overs squeeze decides it

The match pivoted after the powerplay. Somerset flew to 52/3, but then managed only 48/2 in the middle overs at 4.8 an over, turning a manageable chase into a scramble. That slowdown meant the asking rate spiked, and when wickets fell at the back end, the required rate never came back down. Northamptonshire’s own innings showed the same pattern in reverse: after 39/3 in the powerplay, they surged through the middle before collapsing late.

Ball brilliant, Lynn and Smeed trade blows

Ball was outstanding up front and at the death, returning 4/17 to trigger Northamptonshire’s late slide, while Riley Meredith’s 3/21 kept the total within reach. Northamptonshire’s best batting came through Chris Lynn’s 39 off 26 in a 64-run stand with Saif Zaib that rebuilt the innings. In reply, Will Smeed’s 49 off 35 set the tone, but Tom Kohler-Cadmore’s 29 off 37 underlined how the chase got stuck when it mattered.

Pre-match form meets match pressure

Somerset arrived with the better recent form and head-to-head trend, and their new-ball intent reflected that. But this game punished the softer middle phase: the chase demanded boundary options, and Northamptonshire’s bowlers forced them into low-risk accumulation that didn’t keep pace. Even with a stronger death-overs profile on paper, Somerset entered the final stretch needing too much after the middle-overs drag.