Guyana Amazon Warriors are #1 in the CPL regular season with 12 points and are currently in the playoff zone. Antigua & Barbuda Falcons are #2 with 11 points and are also currently in the playoff zone. GAW come in unbeaten at 6W-0L with a +1.977 NRR, while ABF are 5W-3L with a -0.267 NRR.
Toss & Conditions
Head-to-Head
GAW lead the last three head-to-head meetings 2-1. In the most recent meeting, GAW won by 7 wickets and finished the chase with 61 balls remaining after ABF were bowled out for 116. That game was defined by ABF losing all 10 wickets, leaving GAW a small target and time to spare. The wider pattern is mixed, with ABF also having a recent win in this matchup by chasing down a low total with 5 balls remaining.
Guyana Amazon Warriors
GAW are #1 in the CPL regular season on 12 points and are currently in the playoff zone. They are on a six-match unbeaten run, and their last three wins include two chases finished with 9 balls and 16 balls remaining. The most telling result in that stretch was a D/S-method win by 9 runs against Trinbago Knight Riders, showing they can close out tight games as well as dominate.
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons
ABF are #2 in the CPL regular season on 11 points and are currently in the playoff zone. They have won two of their last three, including back-to-back wins where they defended 30 runs against Barbados Tridents and then edged Trinbago Knight Riders by 8 runs. The most telling result is that 8-run win over TKR, a tight finish that still went their way.
Playing XI
Key Stats
Prediction
Current prediction, after the playing XI and toss
All four models favour GAW, with an average win probability of 70% (range 64–74%). Bookmakers align with the models, pricing GAW at 66% (1.45) vs ABF at 34% (2.77). Key stats favour GAW 6-1, driven by their stronger NRR, Elo edge, and better recent form. ABF’s path is to turn this into a closer, lower-margin game than the last head-to-head where they were bowled out and GAW cruised the chase.
Superseded: preliminary prediction, before the XI and toss
Preliminary prediction — calculated before the playing XI and toss were known. It is recalculated 5–30 minutes before the start, once the lineups and toss are confirmed.
All four models are in consensus for GAW, with the model average at 68% for Guyana Amazon Warriors. Bookmakers agree, pricing GAW at 63% (1.52) vs ABF at 37% (2.53). Key stats are a clean sweep for GAW at 5-0, driven by their stronger net run rate and Elo edge. The match likely turns on whether ABF can avoid another batting collapse like the last head-to-head, because GAW have repeatedly closed games early in recent chases.
Joseph turns the chase to rubble
Alzarri Joseph made the decisive intervention, ripping through Guyana Amazon Warriors’ chase just when their powerplay had kept the contest alive. Antigua & Barbuda Falcons’ 182/5 always looked a handful, but Guyana’s 71/4 burst suggested a puncher’s chance. Instead, Joseph’s pace and hard lengths triggered a collapse that ended at 117 in 14.2 overs, sealing a 65-run Falcons win.
Middle-overs squeeze breaks GAW
The match swung in Guyana’s middle overs, where they went from chaotic momentum to complete paralysis. After racing at 11.5 an over in the powerplay, they managed only 46 runs for six wickets through the middle phase (RR 5.5), never reaching a death-overs launch at all. The turning point was the immediate post-powerplay period: wickets kept falling and boundaries dried up, leaving even a modest partnership target out of reach — their best stand was just 33.
Joseph, Shadab set the tone
Joseph’s 4/41 was the match-winning spell because it arrived when Guyana still had a route via powerplay momentum. Shadab Khan shaped both innings: his 2/19 strangled the middle overs, then his 30 off 9 balls turbocharged the finish. Hasan Nawaz’s 36 off 27 provided the top-order glue, allowing the Falcons to save their biggest blows for the back end.
Why the script flipped
Pre-match numbers leaned heavily towards Guyana on form and overall strength, but this game punished their risk-heavy approach. The early surge came with four powerplay wickets, and once the Falcons’ spinners and cutters hit their lengths, Guyana had no stable set batter to reset the chase. Antigua’s innings, by contrast, built steadily before exploding late — 64 runs in the death overs at 16 an over — ensuring Guyana couldn’t afford even a short quiet patch.






