

Match Prediction
Northamptonshire lead the T20B regular season with 28 points and a 7-0 record. Gloucestershire are third on 20 points at 5-2. NOR arrive off a 130-run win over Essex, while GLO’s latest outing ended in an 18-run loss to Somerset. This is a top-of-the-table test against a side that has already beaten NOR in two of the last three meetings.
Toss & Conditions
Head-to-Head
Gloucestershire have won 2 of the last 3 meetings with Northamptonshire. The most recent clash was a 2-run finish, with Northamptonshire defending 166 and restricting Gloucestershire to 164/9. That game turned on Gloucestershire losing too many wickets in the chase, finishing nine down despite being within touching distance. Across the last three, results have swung both ways rather than one team dominating.
Gloucestershire
Gloucestershire are third in the T20B regular season on 20 points with a 5-2 record. Their last three have been tight: a 7-wicket win over Somerset, a 3-run win over Worcestershire, then an 18-run loss to Somerset. The clearest snapshot is that narrow 3-run win, where they defended 148 and bowled Worcestershire out to hold on.
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire are top of the T20B regular season on 28 points with a perfect 7-0 record. Their recent form has mixed close finishes with a statement blowout, including a 130-run win over Essex. They’ve also shown they can win tight games, edging Durham by 7 runs and beating Worcestershire by 6 wickets via the D/L method.
Playing XI
Key Stats
Verdict
All four models favour Northamptonshire, with the average projection at NOR 62% vs GLO 38%. Bookmakers align with that view, pricing NOR at 61% (1.55) vs GLO at 39% (2.40). Key stats narrowly lean Gloucestershire 4-3, but the bigger storyline is NOR’s unbeaten run and stronger season indicators versus GLO’s recent edge in this head-to-head. If GLO can force another late chase squeeze like the last meeting, they can disrupt the table leaders’ momentum.
Willey’s powerplay punch
David Willey made the chase feel over before it had properly started, launching Northamptonshire into top gear as they won by eight wickets with 16 balls remaining. Gloucestershire had done plenty right with the bat, riding Dawid Malan’s 91 off 55 to post 184/2, but Willey’s clean striking meant the target never had time to build pressure. By the time the asking rate might have started to bite, Northamptonshire were already in control, and Nathan McSweeney calmly steered them home.
Powerplay sets the tone
The game swung in the first six overs of Northamptonshire’s reply. They surged to 62/0 in the powerplay at 10.3 an over, wiping out Gloucestershire’s early advantage from a solid 44/1. With no wicket to slow the momentum, Willey could attack the hard ball and the fielding restrictions, turning anything fractionally short or full into boundary options. That burst meant the middle overs were played on Northamptonshire’s terms, with the chase effectively reduced to a run-a-ball exercise.
Malan shines, Willey wins
Malan’s innings was still the standout for Gloucestershire, blending control through the middle with a strong finish to lift them to 184/2, including a best stand of 78 with Liam Scott. But Willey’s 73 off 32 was the decisive act, and McSweeney’s 72 off 40 added the insurance that prevented any wobble after the first wicket. Daaryoush Ahmed’s 2/33 was tidy without being able to change the tempo.
Form line holds firm
Pre-match, Northamptonshire’s recent run and season-long markers suggested they’d be comfortable if they stayed ahead of the rate, and that’s exactly how it played out. Gloucestershire’s plan of setting up a late squeeze depended on early breakthroughs and a tougher powerplay, but the match-up flipped: their new-ball phase couldn’t contain Willey, and the chase never reached a stage where death-overs execution mattered.
SOSomerset
194/7
GLGloucestershire
176/7
GLGloucestershire
148/7
WOWorcestershire
145/10
GLGloucestershire
138/3
SOSomerset
137/8
YOYorkshire
161/10
GLGloucestershire
217/6
NONorthamptonshire
166/3
GLGloucestershire
164/9
GLGlamorgan
157/8
GLGloucestershire
158/8
GLGloucestershire
121/10
WAWarwickshire
74/10
SOSomerset
164/7
GLGloucestershire
148/8
GLGloucestershire
185/5
SUSussex
189/6
GLGlamorgan
135/10
GLGloucestershire
175/6
GL2
NO1
NONorthamptonshire
238/6
ESEssex
108/10
NONorthamptonshire
162/4
WOWorcestershire
154/5
DUDurham
138/8
NONorthamptonshire
145/9
WAWarwickshire
208/7
NONorthamptonshire
209/4
NONorthamptonshire
166/3
GLGloucestershire
164/9
WOWorcestershire
91/10
NONorthamptonshire
191/10
NONorthamptonshire
165/8
GLGlamorgan
162/8
NONorthamptonshire
158/7
HAHampshire
155/4
SUSurrey
147/6
NONorthamptonshire
154/4
DUDurham
204/1
NONorthamptonshire
203/5
NOR
8
8-0
32
HAM
8
6-2
24
NOT
9
6-3
24
YOR
9
5-3
22
SUR
8
5-3
20
GLO
8
5-3
20
GLA
8
5-3
20
ESS
9
5-4
20
WOR
9
5-4
20
KEN
9
4-5
16
LAN
9
4-5
16
DUR
8
3-5
12
WAR
9
3-6
12
SOM
8
3-5
12
LEI
8
3-5
12
DER
8
2-5
10
SUS
9
2-7
8
MID
8
1-7
4
NOR
8
8
0
—
+2.142
32
HAM
8
6
2
—
+0.594
24
NOT
9
6
3
—
+0.199
24
YOR
9
5
3
—
+0.750
22
SUR
8
5
3
—
+0.734
20
GLO
8
5
3
—
+0.526
20
GLA
8
5
3
—
+0.467
20
ESS
9
5
4
—
+0.149
20
WOR
9
5
4
—
-0.043
20
KEN
9
4
5
—
-0.418
16
LAN
9
4
5
—
-0.605
16
DUR
8
3
5
—
+0.396
12
WAR
9
3
6
—
+0.209
12
SOM
8
3
5
—
-0.563
12
LEI
8
3
5
—
-1.344
12
DER
8
2
5
—
+0.446
10
SUS
9
2
7
—
-1.487
8
MID
8
1
7
—
-2.002
4
NORWWWWW
HAMWWWWL
NOTWWWWW
YORWLLDW
SURLWLWW
GLOWWWLL
GLAWLWWW
ESSWWLLW
WORLLLWW
KENLLLWL
LANLWWWL
DURLLLWL
WARLWWWL
SOMLLLWL
LEIWWWLL
DERWLLDL
SUSLWLLL
MIDLLLLL
