Toss & Conditions

The semi-final at Edgbaston was played on a grippy surface that Somerset’s seam attack exploited as Northamptonshire were bowled out for 143. The same match also featured a low-scoring chase where Northamptonshire’s bowlers delivered thrifty middle-overs spells and defended 143.

Head-to-Head

Across the last one meeting, Hampshire lead 1-0. The most recent clash was decided by the D/L method, with Hampshire completing the chase with 14 balls remaining. Northamptonshire posted 158 for 7, but Hampshire’s chase was far enough ahead of the D/L target to seal the result. With only one recent data point, the head-to-head trend is limited to that single Hampshire win.

NONorthamptonshire 158/7

HAHampshire 155/4

2025-09-13 · HAM won by 6 wickets (with 14 balls remaining) (D/L method)

Northamptonshire

Northamptonshire have a 10W-3L record with a +0.666 net run rate. Their last three results include back-to-back wins, most recently a 17-run victory over Somerset after being dismissed for 143. The sequence also includes a five-wicket defeat where the opposition finished the chase with 10 balls remaining.

NONorthamptonshire 143/10

SOSomerset 126/9

2026-07-18 · NOR won by 17 runs

NONorthamptonshire 153/2

GLGloucestershire 152/10

2026-07-15 · NOR won by 8 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

NONorthamptonshire 153/10

WAWarwickshire 154/5

2026-07-12 · WAR won by 5 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

Hampshire

Hampshire have a 9W-4L record with a +0.587 net run rate. They are on a three-match winning run, including a 75-run win over Essex and a 27-run win over Nottinghamshire. Their streak also features a four-wicket chase win with one ball remaining against Sussex.

HAHampshire 187/3

NONottinghamshire 160/10

2026-07-18 · HAM won by 27 runs

HAHampshire 211/3

ESEssex 136/9

2026-07-15 · HAM won by 75 runs

HAHampshire 190/6

SUSussex 186/5

2026-07-12 · HAM won by 4 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

Playing XI

News & Facts

Key Stats

Prediction

Models are split: the ML model favours Northamptonshire at 55%, but the model average leans Hampshire 51% to 49%. Bookmakers diverge from the ML lean, pricing Hampshire at 59% (1.60) vs Northamptonshire at 41% (2.25). Key stats are level at 3-3 overall, with Northamptonshire ahead on NRR and Elo while Hampshire lead the last head-to-head and have the edge in death-overs economy. The decision points are whether Hampshire’s recent win streak and late-overs numbers hold, or Northamptonshire’s marginal NRR/Elo edge translates into control across phases.

Vasconcelos sets, Baker strikes back

Ricardo Vasconcelos owned the night with a commanding 88 off 59, but Northamptonshire still had to earn their 14-run win the hard way. After cruising through the middle overs, they were jolted by Sonny Baker’s five-for, sliding from a position of comfort into 169 all out in 19.5. Hampshire’s reply threatened to catch fire late, yet wickets kept arriving just as the chase asked for one clean over to flip the script.

Powerplay deficit shaped chase

The match was effectively framed in the first six overs of each innings. Northamptonshire’s 61/1 powerplay (10.2 rpo) gave them early control and allowed Vasconcelos to bat with freedom, while Hampshire stumbled to 40/2 at 6.7. That 21-run gap mattered when the finish tightened: Hampshire were actually close in the middle (89/3 at 8.9), but entering the last phase behind the rate meant every dot ball and dismissal was amplified.

Vasconcelos anchors, Sales closes

Vasconcelos’ 69-run stand with Lewis McManus was the innings’ backbone, absorbing the new ball and then accelerating through the middle. Baker (5/21) was the standout bowler, ripping through the back end to keep Hampshire alive. In the chase, Joe Weatherley’s 75 off 53 and Liam Dawson’s 35 off 18 briefly reignited belief, but James Sales’ 3/25 punctured the push, and Hampshire’s last-overs wickets ensured the target stayed out of reach.

Pre-match death-overs edge didn’t land

Hampshire came in with momentum and stronger late-overs numbers on paper, but the game never reached a clean “death-overs chase” for them. The early damage forced risk earlier than planned, and Northamptonshire’s slight overall edge translated into better control of the key moments. Even Baker’s spell couldn’t fully cash in because Hampshire’s own powerplay left too much to do, turning the last four overs into a scramble rather than a launch.