Toss & Conditions

The semi-final at Edgbaston was played on a grippy surface that Somerset’s seam attack exploited as Northamptonshire were bowled out for 143. The same match also featured a low-scoring chase where Northamptonshire’s bowlers delivered thrifty middle-overs spells and defended 143.

Head-to-Head

Across the last one meeting, Hampshire lead 1-0. The most recent clash was decided by the D/L method, with Hampshire completing the chase with 14 balls remaining. Northamptonshire posted 158 for 7, but Hampshire’s chase was far enough ahead of the D/L target to seal the result. With only one recent data point, the head-to-head trend is limited to that single Hampshire win.

NONorthamptonshire 158/7

HAHampshire 155/4

2025-09-13 · HAM won by 6 wickets (with 14 balls remaining) (D/L method)

Northamptonshire

Northamptonshire have a 10W-3L record with a +0.666 net run rate. Their last three results include back-to-back wins, most recently a 17-run victory over Somerset after being dismissed for 143. The sequence also includes a five-wicket defeat where the opposition finished the chase with 10 balls remaining.

NONorthamptonshire 143/10

SOSomerset 126/9

2026-07-18 · NOR won by 17 runs

NONorthamptonshire 153/2

GLGloucestershire 152/10

2026-07-15 · NOR won by 8 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

NONorthamptonshire 153/10

WAWarwickshire 154/5

2026-07-12 · WAR won by 5 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

Hampshire

Hampshire have a 9W-4L record with a +0.587 net run rate. They are on a three-match winning run, including a 75-run win over Essex and a 27-run win over Nottinghamshire. Their streak also features a four-wicket chase win with one ball remaining against Sussex.

HAHampshire 187/3

NONottinghamshire 160/10

2026-07-18 · HAM won by 27 runs

HAHampshire 211/3

ESEssex 136/9

2026-07-15 · HAM won by 75 runs

HAHampshire 190/6

SUSussex 186/5

2026-07-12 · HAM won by 4 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

Playing XI

News & Facts

Key Stats

Verdict

Models are split: the ML model favours Northamptonshire at 55%, but the model average leans Hampshire 51% to 49%. Bookmakers diverge from the ML lean, pricing Hampshire at 59% (1.60) vs Northamptonshire at 41% (2.25). Key stats are level at 3-3 overall, with Northamptonshire ahead on NRR and Elo while Hampshire lead the last head-to-head and have the edge in death-overs economy. The decision points are whether Hampshire’s recent win streak and late-overs numbers hold, or Northamptonshire’s marginal NRR/Elo edge translates into control across phases.