Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Texas Super Kings have won all of the last three meetings against Seattle Orcas. In the most recent clash, TSK won by 6 wickets with 9 balls remaining in a high-scoring game where both sides crossed 220. The defining detail was that Seattle still posted 220/2 but it wasn’t enough to defend. Across these three games, the pattern has been one-way: TSK keep finding a way past SO.

TSTexas Super Kings 221/4

SOSeattle Orcas 220/2

2026-06-19 · TSK won by 6 wickets (with 9 balls remaining)

SOSeattle Orcas 137/10

TSTexas Super Kings 188/4

2025-07-05 · TSK won by 51 runs

TSTexas Super Kings 153/6

SOSeattle Orcas 60/10

2025-06-17 · TSK won by 93 runs

Seattle Orcas

Seattle Orcas are 3rd in the MLC regular season with 6 points (3W-4L) and a +0.199 NRR, currently in the playoff zone. Their recent run has been tight and volatile, with two close losses around a 20-run win. The most telling result is the latest one: a 5-run defeat to MI New York after SO fell short in a chase.

SOSeattle Orcas 127/9

MIMI New York 132/8

2026-07-03 · MINY won by 5 runs

SOSeattle Orcas 154/7

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 134/8

2026-06-28 · SO won by 20 runs

SOSeattle Orcas 191/10

SFSan Francisco Unicorns 192/8

2026-06-27 · SFU won by 2 wickets (with 2 balls remaining)

Texas Super Kings

Texas Super Kings are 6th in the MLC regular season with 6 points (3W-4L) and a -0.083 NRR, currently outside the playoff zone. Their last three games show fine margins, with a 6-wicket win followed by losses by 1 wicket and then 6 wickets. The most telling result is the 1-wicket defeat to Washington Freedom with no balls remaining, highlighting how little separates them from wins and losses.

TSTexas Super Kings 173/5

LALos Angeles Knight Riders 175/4

2026-07-04 · LAKR won by 6 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 185/4

WSWashington Freedom 187/9

2026-06-28 · WSF won by 1 wicket (with 0 ball remaining)

TSTexas Super Kings 132/4

MIMI New York 127/9

2026-06-26 · TSK won by 6 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

Models are split, with the average leaning slightly to Seattle Orcas at 51% vs 49% for Texas Super Kings. Bookmakers also show near parity, pricing SO at 51% (1.85) vs TSK at 49% (1.90). Key-stats lean Texas Super Kings 4-2 overall, driven by their edge in head-to-head and several economy metrics. Seattle’s better NRR and death-overs economy versus TSK’s recent dominance in this matchup look like the swing factors.

Shanaka’s four-for shuts it down

Dasun Shanaka flipped the game in Seattle Orcas’ favour in a match where every boundary felt like a swing. With Texas Super Kings threatening to grind their way home, Shanaka’s incisive spell broke the chase open and Seattle held their nerve to win by 9 runs, defending 121 in a tense, stop-start finish.

Middle overs choke the chase

The decisive stretch came after the powerplay. Texas were 35/3 early, but the chase didn’t collapse; it slowed. Across the middle overs they managed only 47/2 at 4.7 an over, leaving too much for the back end on a surface where timing was hard-earned. Even with 30 coming at 7.5 an over at the death, wickets kept falling, and Seattle’s bowlers never let a set batter cash in.

Baartman and Shanaka deliver

Ottneil Baartman set the tone with relentless control, conceding just 9 in his four overs and forcing Texas into riskier options. Shanaka then supplied the knockout blows with 4/26, repeatedly breaking partnerships just as they began to form. Cameron Gannon’s 20 off 21 and a best stand of 31 helped Seattle scrape to 121, while Shubham Ranjane’s 40 off 44 and Donovan Ferreira’s brisk 22 off 16 kept Texas in touch without ever truly taking command.

Pre-match parity, decided by death skills

The pre-game numbers pointed to a near coin-flip, with Texas’ head-to-head edge offset by Seattle’s stronger late-overs profile. That’s exactly where the match swung. Seattle’s top order stumbled to 31/3 in the powerplay, yet they still found a crucial late surge — 33 runs in the final phase — to post a defendable total. Texas, by contrast, couldn’t manufacture a similar finishing kick once the required rate climbed.