Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Nottinghamshire lead the last three meetings 2-1. In the most recent meeting last season, Nottinghamshire chased down Durham’s 156/8 to win with 16 balls remaining. The defining detail was the control of the chase: NOT got home with six wickets in hand and time to spare. Across the last two meetings, Nottinghamshire have won both while chasing.

NONottinghamshire 157/4

DUDurham 156/8

2026-05-31 · NOT won by 6 wickets (with 16 balls remaining)

NONottinghamshire 159/3

DUDurham 156/10

2025-07-11 · NOT won by 7 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

DUDurham 231/5

NONottinghamshire 182/10

2025-07-04 · DUR won by 49 runs

Durham

Durham are 12th in the T20B regular season on 12 points. Their recent form has swung between extremes: a 100-run demolition of Middlesex followed by a one-ball defeat to Yorkshire despite reaching 205. That inability to close out tight games has kept their 3W-5L record from turning into a climb up the table.

DUDurham 205/9

YOYorkshire 208/5

2026-07-03 · YOR won by 5 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)

DUDurham 218/6

MIMiddlesex 118/10

2026-06-28 · DUR won by 100 runs

DUDurham 128/2

LALancashire 130/3

2026-06-09 · LAN won by 7 wickets (with 5 balls remaining)

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire are 4th in the T20B regular season on 24 points. They are on a 3-match winning run, and the tone has been both clinical and composed under pressure. The clearest signal was their last outing: a 1-run win over Lancashire in a finish decided at the very end.

NONottinghamshire 181/6

LALancashire 180/7

2026-07-03 · NOT won by 1 runs

NONottinghamshire 209/4

LELeicestershire 135/10

2026-06-28 · NOT won by 74 runs

NONottinghamshire 187/6

KEKent 184/7

2026-06-26 · NOT won by 4 wickets (with 8 balls remaining)

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models favour Nottinghamshire, with the model average at NOT 64% vs DUR 36%. Bookmakers align with that lean, pricing NOT at 56% (1.70) vs DUR at 44% (2.10). Key stats overall favour Nottinghamshire 6-2, driven by their stronger recent results and edge across most economy phases. Durham’s counterweight is a better NRR and a death-overs economy edge, but they need that to translate into points.

Clarke sets up the heist

Joe Clarke’s clean striking at the top gave Nottinghamshire the chase’s shape, but it was the kind of finish that leaves everyone counting on their fingers. After Clarke’s 56 off 35 and a stabilising stand, Durham’s Matty Potts ripped out three wickets late to turn a comfortable pursuit into a last-over nail-biter. Nottinghamshire eventually staggered home by 2 runs, 166/8 chasing 165, with Durham left one boundary short despite a late push.

Middle overs swing it

The decisive separation came in the middle overs, when Nottinghamshire kept scoring while Durham lost shape. Durham flew to 58 without loss in the powerplay, but then managed only 65/4 through the middle phase at 6.5 an over, wickets repeatedly halting momentum. Nottinghamshire, by contrast, went 81/4 in the same period at 8.1, powered by the 84-run Haynes–Clarke partnership that turned a brisk start into a chase with breathing room.

Potts’ burst, Linde’s clamp

Potts was the game’s disruptor, his 3/32 keeping Durham alive when Nottinghamshire threatened to cruise, especially as wickets fell in the final four overs. Clarke was the chase’s engine, while Jack Haynes’ 37 off 25 ensured the big partnership didn’t stall. For Nottinghamshire, George Linde’s 2/19 and Liam Patterson-White’s miserly 2/7 were crucial in choking Durham’s middle overs, forcing risks that became wickets.

Form and phases align

Pre-match, Nottinghamshire’s recent run of wins and a clear edge in the early-innings economy phases suggested they could control the tempo. That played out: they matched Durham stride for stride in the powerplay (57/1 vs 58/0), then squeezed harder when the field spread. Durham’s better death-overs numbers did show up in the tension at the end, but the damage had been done earlier when their middle overs slipped away.