Toss & Conditions

Head-to-Head

Surrey W have won the last two meetings against Essex W. In the most recent clash last month, Surrey defended 149/5 and then chased down 145/7 for a 5-wicket win with 14 balls remaining. The finish was controlled enough that Surrey still had more than two overs in hand when they got home. The pattern across these two games is consistent: Surrey have won both by 5 wickets while chasing.

SUSurrey W 149/5

ESEssex W 145/7

2026-06-05 · SUR-W won by 5 wickets (with 14 balls remaining)

SUSurrey W 159/5

ESEssex W 93/5

2025-07-06 · Match tied (D/L method)

ESEssex W 148/7

SUSurrey W 150/5

2025-06-15 · SUR-W won by 5 wickets (with 9 balls remaining)

Essex W

Essex W are 6th in the T20BW Regular Season with 13 points, a 3W-5L record, and a -0.641 NRR, currently outside the playoff zone. Their form is in freefall with three straight losses, including a 55-run defeat to Hampshire W that underlined how quickly games have been getting away from them.

ESEssex W 116/8

WAWarwickshire W 119/5

2026-07-01 · WAR-W won by 5 wickets (with 24 balls remaining)

ESEssex W 136/9

TBThe Blaze W 137/1

2026-06-28 · The Blaze won by 9 wickets (with 25 balls remaining)

ESEssex W 100/9

HAHampshire W 155/4

2026-06-07 · HAM-W won by 55 runs

Surrey W

Surrey W are 1st in the T20BW Regular Season with 27 points, a 6W-2L record, and a +0.530 NRR, currently in the playoff zone. They have won two of their last three, and their latest result was a 34-run win over The Blaze W that followed a tight 2-wicket chase against Somerset W.

SUSurrey W 155/8

TBThe Blaze W 121/10

2026-07-03 · SUR-W won by 34 runs

SUSurrey W 152/8

SOSomerset W 148/6

2026-06-28 · SUR-W won by 2 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)

SUSurrey W 130/10

WAWarwickshire W 172/5

2026-06-26 · WAR-W won by 42 runs

Playing XI

Key Stats

Verdict

All four models are in consensus for Surrey W, with the model average at SUR-W 71% (range 59–78%). Bookmakers agree, pricing SUR-W at 69% (1.36) vs ESS-W at 31% (2.94). Key stats lean heavily to Surrey 7-1, driven by the gap in season performance and the recent head-to-head trend. Essex’s path back into this matchup starts with breaking their current losing run and stopping Surrey from controlling another chase.

Bosch blows away the chase

Anneke Bosch took the pressure out of a steep target with a controlled, high-tempo 84 off 54, steering Essex to a nine-wicket win with five balls remaining. Surrey had done plenty right to post 184/4, and for a stretch in the middle overs it felt like a score that could defend itself. But once Bosch settled, the chase became a question of timing rather than risk, and Essex kept finding boundary options even when Surrey tried to slow the game down.

Powerplay sets the tone

The match swung hardest in the first six overs of Essex’s reply. Essex rocketed to 75/0 in the powerplay at 12.5 an over, immediately flipping the chase from “big ask” to “manageable cruise”. That burst meant Surrey’s bowlers had no room for quiet overs later; even when Essex’s middle phase dipped to 80/1, the required rate stayed within reach. By the time the last five overs arrived, Essex needed only a controlled finish, and they closed it without a late scramble.

Bosch and Spence headline night

Bosch was the decisive force, pairing with Grace Scrivens in a 95-run partnership that turned intent into inevitability. For Surrey, Jemima Spence’s 70 off 41 was the innings’ spark, and Bryony Smith’s 53 kept the scoreboard moving through the middle. Essex’s bowlers did enough up front too: Sophia Smale’s 2 for 28 ensured Surrey’s acceleration came with just enough friction to keep the target chaseable.

Surrey’s strengths didn’t bite

Pre-match, Surrey’s stronger season numbers and recent form suggested they’d control a chase, but this game ran the other way: Essex controlled the chase from ball one. Surrey’s innings had momentum through the Spence–Smith stand of 81, yet Essex’s early strikes in the powerplay kept it from becoming a 200-plus blowout. With a flat chase set up by Essex’s flying start, Surrey’s usual advantage at the death never had a chance to surface.