

Match Prediction
Lancashire sit 11th in the T20B Regular Season on 18 points with a 4W-5L record and a -0.543 NRR. Yorkshire are 4th on 26 points at 6W-3L with a +0.883 NRR. The last three head-to-heads are 2-1 in Yorkshire’s favour, including a heavy Yorkshire win in the most recent meeting. Recent results for both sides have featured tight finishes and ties, so late-innings execution is under pressure again.
Toss & Conditions
Head-to-Head
Yorkshire lead the last three meetings 2-1. In the most recent clash, Yorkshire won decisively after posting 213/7 and bowling Lancashire out for 107. That match was defined by Lancashire’s batting collapse in the chase. Across the last three, results have swung both ways, but Yorkshire have taken two of the last three.
Lancashire
Lancashire are 11th in the T20B Regular Season with 18 points. Their last three games have been decided by the finest margins: a tie, a 1-run loss, and a 4-run win. The clearest snapshot is the 1-run defeat to Nottinghamshire, where they fell just short in a tight chase.
Yorkshire
Yorkshire are 4th in the T20B Regular Season with 26 points. They are unbeaten in their last three matches with two wins and a tie. The standout result is the 41-run win over Leicestershire, built on a 207/4 total and a controlled defence.
Playing XI
Key Stats
Verdict
All four models favour Yorkshire, with the model average at YOR 62% (range 55–70%). Bookmakers broadly agree but are tighter, pricing LAN at 48% (1.95) vs YOR at 52% (1.85). Key stats are a clean sweep for Yorkshire at 7-0, driven by their stronger season position and better overall rate metrics. The match likely turns on whether Lancashire can avoid another chase collapse against a Yorkshire side that has recently stayed unbeaten in close games.
Stanley’s powerplay burst stuns Yorkshire
Mitchell Stanley turned a forecast Yorkshire chase into a scramble, striking early and often as Lancashire defended 216 for 6 to win by 22 runs. Yorkshire still had a pulse when Matthew Revis began to find the rope, but the damage was done long before the death overs, and Lancashire’s big total kept forcing risk.
Powerplay collapse decided it
The match swung in the first six overs of Yorkshire’s reply. Chasing 10.8 an over, they slid to 47 for 4 in the powerplay, a hole that made every quiet over feel terminal. Lancashire, by contrast, had flown to 70 for 1 up front, banking momentum and options. Even though Yorkshire’s middle overs steadied (87 for 2), the required rate stayed brutal, and the late surge (60 for 2) came with too many wickets already spent.
Livingstone sets, Stanley seals
Liam Livingstone’s 59 off 37 anchored the innings without slowing it down, and his 76-run stand with Ben McDermott gave Lancashire their decisive platform. McDermott then turbocharged the total with 46 off 23, ensuring the last five overs were a launch rather than a rebuild. Revis’ 52 off 38 briefly threatened to drag Yorkshire into a shootout, but Stanley’s four-over spell kept pulling the chase back from the brink at the exact moments it needed a clean run.
Pre-match edge flipped on its head
Yorkshire arrived with the stronger season numbers and a reputation for staying calm in tight finishes, while Lancashire’s recent chases had carried a hint of fragility. But this game was never about a composed pursuit: it became a high-wire act from ball one after the early wickets. Lancashire also outperformed the expected matchup at the back end, finishing with 57 runs in the death overs to push the target beyond what a patched-up chase could realistically absorb.
LALancashire
150/8
DEDerbyshire
150/9
NONottinghamshire
181/6
LALancashire
180/7
DEDerbyshire
202/10
LALancashire
205/10
LELeicestershire
156/7
LALancashire
160/5
DUDurham
128/2
LALancashire
130/3
LALancashire
201/8
GLGlamorgan
202/8
YOYorkshire
213/7
LALancashire
107/10
LALancashire
145/9
LELeicestershire
146/8
LALancashire
208/4
NONottinghamshire
172/9
SUSurrey
213/6
LALancashire
154/10
LA4
YO5
YOYorkshire
213/7
LALancashire
107/10
YOYorkshire
153/10
LALancashire
174/10
LALancashire
217/7
YOYorkshire
236/6
YOYorkshire
173/8
LALancashire
166/8
YOYorkshire
195/6
LALancashire
180/8
YOYorkshire
204/7
LALancashire
208/4
YOYorkshire
209/8
LALancashire
213/5
LALancashire
183/7
YOYorkshire
183/5
LALancashire
131/6
YOYorkshire
128/7
YOYorkshire
180/4
LALancashire
171/8
YOYorkshire
207/4
LELeicestershire
166/9
YOYorkshire
208/5
DUDurham
205/9
DEDerbyshire
215/9
YOYorkshire
215/8
HAHampshire
155/8
YOYorkshire
150/10
LELeicestershire
147/8
YOYorkshire
135/10
YOYorkshire
213/7
LALancashire
107/10
YOYorkshire
161/10
GLGloucestershire
217/6
DUDurham
93/10
YOYorkshire
151/9
YOYorkshire
195/8
DEDerbyshire
194/4
NONottinghamshire
167/7
YOYorkshire
169/3
NOR
10
9-1
36
HAM
10
7-3
28
NOT
10
7-3
28
YOR
10
6-3
26
GLO
10
6-4
24
SUR
10
6-4
24
WOR
10
6-4
24
SOM
10
5-5
20
ESS
10
5-5
20
GLA
10
5-5
20
LAN
10
4-5
18
DUR
10
4-6
16
WAR
10
4-6
16
KEN
10
4-6
16
DER
10
2-6
12
MID
10
3-7
12
LEI
10
3-7
12
SUS
10
2-8
8
NOR
10
9
1
—
+1.432
36
HAM
10
7
3
—
+0.510
28
NOT
10
7
3
—
+0.188
28
YOR
10
6
3
—
+0.883
26
GLO
10
6
4
—
+0.556
24
SUR
10
6
4
—
+0.414
24
WOR
10
6
4
—
+0.038
24
SOM
10
5
5
—
+0.247
20
ESS
10
5
5
—
+0.081
20
GLA
10
5
5
—
+0.018
20
LAN
10
4
5
—
-0.543
18
DUR
10
4
6
—
+0.564
16
WAR
10
4
6
—
+0.338
16
KEN
10
4
6
—
-0.474
16
DER
10
2
6
—
+0.222
12
MID
10
3
7
—
-1.475
12
LEI
10
3
7
—
-1.543
12
SUS
10
2
8
—
-1.474
8
NORWWWLW
HAMWWLWL
NOTWWWWW
YORLLDWW
GLOWLLWL
SURLWWLW
WORLLWWW
SOMLWLWW
ESSWLLWL
GLAWWWLL
LANWWWLD
DURLWLLW
WARWWWLW
KENLLWLL
DERLDLDL
MIDLLLWW
LEIWLLLL
SUSWLLLL
